While the 2026 Oscars may still feel like a distant event on the horizon, Hollywood’s awards prognosticators are already deep in speculation mode. In the entertainment capital, Oscar conversations begin the moment cameras start rolling. Early festival buzz is giving plenty to discuss and dissect, and post-production whispers are helping to identify potential contenders. Out of all of the categories, this year’s Best Supporting Actor race is already shaping up to be one of the most fiercely competitive in recent memory.
With established stars and previous winners like George Clooney and Leonardo DiCaprio leading high-profile films, early reports are building buzz for supporting actors like Sean Penn in Paul Thomas Anderson‘s upcoming project, and Stephen Graham for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. However, there could be some stars rising from obscurity and others looking at landing their first ever nod. So, here’s our early predictions for the Best Supporting Actor category.
5. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Adam Sandler‘s relationship with Oscar recognition has been an interesting, and for some, frustrating case study in Hollywood’s slowly but surely evolving appreciation for comedic actors who venture into dramatic realms. Sandler first wowed critics with his nuanced and explosive performance in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Punch Drunk Love (2002), which marked his initial foray into serious acting. Since then, whilst also delivering his usual wacky comedies, Sandler has sprinkled in renditions that showcase his dramatic range, culminating in his tour-de-force performance in the Safdie Brothers‘ Uncut Gems in 2019. His portrayal of gambling-addicted jeweler Howard Ratner earned him the Best Male Lead award at the Independent Spirit Awards and a Best Actor nomination at the Gotham Awards. However, despite widespread critical acclaim and a passionate fan campaign, the Academy Awards snub stung particularly hard, leaving many to question whether Sandler would ever receive his due recognition from Oscar voters.
Yet, 2026 could be Sandler’s biggest ever chance at nabbing the Oscar gold thanks to his performance in Jay Kelly. With writer/director Noah Baumbach at the helm, Jay Kelly emerges with significant pedigree. Baumbach himself has already been recognised by the Oscars on four separate occasions. He has also directed many of his actors to nominations, and led Laura Dern to a victory. So, with Baumbach’s track record with intimate character studies and his ability to extract nuanced performances from his actors, this immediately elevates any project’s awards prospects. Perhaps most tellingly, early screening reactions suggest that Sandler is stealing scenes from none other than George Clooney, an Oscar-winning lead actor and Hollywood royalty. When a supporting player can overshadow such established star power, it typically signals the kind of scene-stealing performance that Oscar voters find irresistible in the supporting categories.
4. Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
To many, Jeremy Strong was the standout in 2024’s Donald Trump biopic, The Apprentice. For his immersive portrayal of American lawyer and prosecutor Roy Cohn, this highly-trained theatre actor landed his first ever Oscar nomination. And one thing is almost certain in Hollywood, the Academy like to give the previous year’s losers another shot at victory, particularly if they deliver a performance that tops the last.
With Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Strong is yet again portraying a real-life person in Jon Landau, Bruce Springsteen‘s manager. The Academy has long given preference to biographical depictions of iconic musicians, and musical biopics about legendary performers have often done well at the Oscars. What’s more, director Scott Cooper, who has already proven that he can create Oscar-winning performances in musical dramas with his directing debut Crazy Heart, which won two Academy Awards, including Best Actor for Jeff Bridges, is a big contributing factor to the film’s award potential.
3. Miles Caton – Sinners
As well as selecting new favorites who tend to come back year after year, the voters at the Oscars seem to enjoy giving the nod to first time performers like that of Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense, and Haing S. Ngor in The Killing Fields. Miles Caton could be the next example of this for his acclaimed performance in Ryan Coogler‘s blockbuster, Sinners.
Not only is this genre-bending flick one of the biggest hits of 2025 so far, it has also been met with a wealth of critical praise. Despite being released a little too early for typical Oscar contention, when its comes to the 2026 Oscars, Sinners has been mentioned by some top outlets including Variety and Vanity Fair. Although the film is stacked with talent, first-time actor and musician Miles Caton steals many of the film’s biggest scenes with his melding of drama and music. His performance is subtle yet intense as the audience sees his loss of innocence stripped away in front of them in the most harrowing of circumstances. However, at the same time, the terrifying events of the film help him come into his own, making for a truly transformative rendition that most first-times actors would struggle to pull off.
2. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
The eclectic Stellan Skarsgård is one of the most recognisable faces in cinema. Although he has a Primetime Emmy nomination to his name, he is yet to garner an Oscar nomination. However, he is a favorite for many top outlets for the 2026 Oscars in the Best Supporting Actor category. With heaps of critics hailing his performance in Sentimental Value as his best to date, buzz is quickly ramping up.
In this moving examination of family, memories, and the healing potential of art, Skarsgård effortlessly conveys a complex yet understated portrait of Gustav Borg, a filmmaker trying to re-connect with his estranged daughters after a protracted separation. According to early festival responses, Skarsgård’s subtle yet impactful rendition could well be the pivotal role that finally brings him Academy Awards honour. However, the Swedish thespian will first have to contend with the same enduring obstacle that many outstanding foreign performances must overcome: the difficult task of promoting a foreign picture in Hollywood’s awards system. Despite the Academy’s efforts to embrace more global cinema in recent years, foreign-language films often struggle with the visibility and momentum required for major category nominations, particularly in the acting branches where personal campaigning and industry relationships play crucial roles.
1. Paul Mescal – Hamnet
Paul Mescal is riding a fast and ferocious wave of momentum that could carry him straight into his second consecutive Oscar nomination. The Irish actor, who has rapidly ascended to A-list status, is giving rise to significant buzz for his supporting role in Hamnet, the deeply human story of Agnes, William Shakespeare‘s wife, as she grapples with the devastating loss of her only son, Hamnet, which serves as the emotional backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare’s most famous play, “Hamlet.”
Mescal is widely predicted to win Best Supporting Actor on prestigious websites like Variety, putting him in a solid position to compete in what is expected to be an extremely tough race. The fresh-faced star’s participation in this esteemed literary adaption, in which he plays the legendary Shakespeare, is another astute career choice for an actor who has continuously selected roles that highlight his breadth of acting while preserving his award-winning reputation. In fact, one could argue that this is his most significant role to date. Given his heightened star power and the Academy’s clear appreciation for his work, a second nomination would solidify his place among Hollywood’s most promising artists.
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