Although it may seem like a distant event, the 2026 Oscars are already creating a lot of excitement. Of course, every cinematic season, nominee predictions start swirling at the tail end of the year before really ramping up in the beginning of the actual year of the awards. But this year feels different as the list of potential nominees is so stacked it’s spilling over.
One of the most coveted and most talked about categories is the Best Director award. This is because more often than not, the winner of Best Director provides a good indicator as to what the Best Picture winner may be. In 2026, iconic heavyweights and emerging new talents will be battling it out for contention. So, here’s our pick of 5 likely candidates.
5. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
The Academy has long given recognition toward stories about iconic historical figures, and few names carry more cultural significance than William Shakespeare. Hamnet stands out as such a strong contender because director Chloé Zhao takes an unexpected approach to the Bard’s legacy. Rather than centering on Shakespeare himself, the film focuses on his wife Agnes (often known as Anne Hathaway), exploring her grief following the death of their son Hamnet and her influence on what would become one of literature’s greatest tragedies, Hamlet.
This female-driven story feels especially powerful coming from Zhao, who was previously the first woman of colour and just the second woman to win Best Director for Nomadland, another personal exploration of a woman dealing with loss and resilience. Zhao’s direction brings a lyrical, meditative quality to the period setting, eschewing traditional biopic conventions for something more emotionally immersive. Her ability to draw raw, understated performances while crafting visually stunning cinema has already proven Oscar-worthy once, and Hamnet showcases that same distinctive touch. With the film earning strong reviews and the Academy’s recent trend of honoring female directors continuing, Zhao stands as a formidable contender for Best Director recognition at the 2026 Oscars.
4. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Marty Supreme got a lot of people intrigued from the outset as it marks Josh Safdie‘s first solo effort after splitting from his brother Benny, with whom he formed one of modern cinema’s most distinctive directing duos. The visionary brothers previously wowed audiences and critics with Good Time, and Uncut Gems, but are yet to be recognised by the Oscars. In 2025, both have ventured out on their own, Benny with The Smashing Machine, and Josh with Marty Supreme.
While both are being tipped for nominations, Josh arguably has the better chance due to his lead star Timothée Chalamet being not just a major Hollywood star but also a two-time Oscar nominee. The Safdies’ previous films were widely unique but frenetic and rather abrasive, a cinematic style that doesn’t always gel well with voters. However, Marty Supreme offers a more conventional story but within a world that has barely been explored in cinema: table tennis. And one thing cinema history has taught us is that each year a truly unique movie like this will typically make the cut.
3. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Sinners was thrust into the 2026 Oscars conversation as soon as it debuted in April 2025. Opening to a perfect score on Rotten Tomatoes (that has since only dropped to 97%), and earning a whopping $48 million in its first weekend, Ryan Coogler‘s genre-bending epic feels poised for Oscar glory. Working from his own sprawling script, Coogler directs the film in a way that defies Hollywood tradition. Part musical, part crime drama, part action, part horror, this feels like a movie that should not work. The fact that it works beautifully stands as Coogler’s biggest achievement as a filmmaker. So, with two prior nominations to his name, it’s hard to believe he won’t land a Best Director nod come the 2026 Oscars.
2. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
While the Academy do often honor filmmakers capable of directing big spectacle movies, it’s more common for them to recognise artistic minds that make simple stories utterly invigorating. Joachim Trier achieved that with Sentimental Value. On the surface, this family drama feels like something we’ve seen time and time again – an out of touch man trying to reconnect with his estranged family while learning lessons about himself along the way. However, Trier uses intense character study to create a compelling movie that keeps you as hooked as a thriller would. Trier previously earned an Oscar nomination for his screenplay for The Worst Person in the World, proving the Academy already recognizes his talent. With Sentimental Value, he’s made a strong case for Best Director recognition, delivering the kind of intimate, character-driven work that voters have consistently rewarded in recent years.
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
One Battle After Another may be the most critically-praised movie of 2025 thus far. That alone puts it in good standing for the 2026 Oscars. Couple that with the fact that Paul Thomas Anderson is an 11-time nominee with the Academy, and it feels like a recipe for contention. However, what his previous nominations tell us is that while he’s likely to be nominated, that doesn’t mean he will take home the gold.
There are some strong points massively in his favour, though. Firstly, One Battle After Another is led by Oscar favourite Leonardo DiCaprio and features a sizzling supporting role from two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn. The script is solid, infused with many of Anderson’s signature styles whilst also throwing in some surprises. But most impressive is his direction. The pacing makes the nearly 3 hour runtime feel like it’s actually a 90-minute flick. Anderson’s ability to keep audiences glued to their seats has truly been cemented here, or perhaps enhanced. It also feels extremely likely that Anderson will get a nod given that the Academy has honored overdue filmmakers in three of the last four ceremonies – Jane Campion, Christopher Nolan, and Sean Baker.
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