Outside of the Best Picture award, the Best Actor and Best Actress awards are easily the most coveted at the Academy Awards. While the 2026 Oscars may seem like a distant event, speculation is heating up as many critically acclaimed films are capturing the attention of moviegoers and critics. Already, movies like Sinners and F1 have impressed at the box office and got a lot of people talking.
Before the nominations land in early 2026, many big movies are set to release. Some are star-studded affairs that seem poised for contention, and others have had advanced screenings that are placing the film into good standing. So, here’s our early predictions for the Best Actor category at the 2026 Oscars.
5. George Clooney – Jay Kelly
George Clooney has been popular with the voters at the Oscars ever since his first nomination in 2006. That year, he was nominated for three separate awards in two different movies, and took home the gold for Best Supporting Actor in Syriana. Then, in 2013, he won his second Oscar as a producer on Argo. However, he is yet to win in the Best Actor category. This could very well change at the 2026 Oscars with his titular role in Jay Kelly.
Although this Netflix comedy drama is yet to hit movie theaters, early screenings have spun a lot of praise for Adam Sandler, who serves as the supporting actor to Clooney. With many calling this Sandler’s biggest ever chance at an Oscar nomination, one would assume that the seasoned George Clooney will be up there with him. What’s more, the picture is helmed by Noah Baumbach, who has a glorious track record of directing his actors to Oscar nominations.
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Although it was released outside of the typical contention window for the Oscars, Sinners was one of the biggest movies of 2025, both commercially and critically. Although horror movies don’t typically fare well at the Oscars, this genre-bending epic has way more texture than previous horror movies that managed to land some golden nods. And the last few years have taught us that the voters at the Academy are becoming much more diverse with their selections: in 2025, The Substance was nominated for Best Picture, and seven years prior, Get Out found itself nominated in the same prestigious category.
So, with many top media outlets like Variety putting their bets on Sinners landing big, this feels like Michael B. Jordan‘s shot at his first ever Oscar nomination. As mentioned, Sinners is much more than a horror film. It blends crime, drama, mystery, action, and music to create a totally unique cinematic experience. Playing two characters, Jordan carries the weight of this picture, near enough appearing in every scene. With this magnetic dual performance lead role, now more than ever has he solidified himself as one of Hollywood’s finest leading men. A nod at the 2026 Oscars would only cement his place even further.
3. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine
Dwayne Johnson, who until recently went by Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, may not be a name you ever thought you’d hear thrown around when it comes to Oscar gossip. However, it’s happening all over Tinsel Town. While he may have lost some respect as a serious dramatic actor thanks to his involvement in many franchises, if you look back to the beginning of his journey as a thespian, he has delivered some nuanced renditions in films like Walking Tall, and Gridiron Gang.
Johnson is in pretty good standing for a Best Actor nomination in 2026 for a multitude of reasons. Firstly, sporting movies tend to impress the Academy frequently. Secondly, transformative roles typically capture voters’ attention. And thirdly, the film is directed by Indie darling filmmaker Benny Safdie (Uncut Gems), who is yet to land a nomination himself. In The Smashing Machine, Johnson transforms himself to play real-life UFC champion and MMA fighter Mark Kerr, a man many consider to be a legend in the sport and one of the greatest heavyweights of all time. Which takes us to our final point, the Oscars love a legacy biopic.
2. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
After catapulting to worldwide fame with his twisted performance in Breaking Bad, American actor Jesse Plemons has landed a BAFTA nomination, two Critics Choice nominations, and an Oscar nomination for Best Actor in a Supporting Role. Although he took home Best Actor at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival for Kinds of Kindness, he is yet to be so fortunate with the Oscars. In 2026, it’s looking likely that he will receive his first Best Actor nod for Bugonia.
Directed by visionary filmmaker Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia centres on two conspiracy-obsessed young men who kidnap the high-powered CEO of a major company, convinced that she is an alien intent on destroying planet Earth. Major outlets including AwardsWatch are already positioning Plemons as a frontrunner for the Best Actor race, with many citing his proven chemistry with the film’s leading actress, Emma Stone, who is also generating significant buzz for her performance. Furthermore, the fact that Lanthimos is a five-time nominee who landed big with Poor Things in 2024, garnering 11 nominations and four wins, it cant help but feel like a recipe for triumph.
1. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Bringing major star power to the table, having enthralled audiences worldwide as Pablo Escobar in Netflix’s mega-hit Narcos, Brazilian powerhouse Wagner Moura takes our top spot with his commanding rendition in O Agente Secreto (The Secret Agent). From acclaimed filmmaker Kleber Mendonça Filho, this genre-melding film is set amongst the backdrop of Brazil’s military dictatorship in 1977. Charting Marcelo Alves (Moura), a technology expert and teacher who arrives in Recife during carnival week, the film sees him set out on a desperate mission to reunite with his son while fleeing political persecution. And what he hoped would be a peaceful refuge quickly transforms into a deadly cat-and-mouse game as corrupt federal officials and hitmen close in on him.
The Secret Agent has already garnered a wealth of positive reviews following its triumphant debut at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, where it swept four major awards including Best Actor for Moura and Best Director for Mendonça Filho. Many top critics have lauded the film as both a gripping political thriller and a love letter to Brazilian cinema. To that, it deftly emerges as a strong contender for Best International Feature Film, and as we’ve witnessed with groundbreaking films like Parasite, international features can transcend category limitations to compete for Best Picture. When films achieve this crossover success, lead actor nominations typically follow.
Read Next: Was Sinners Released Too Early For the 2026 Oscars?
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