Avatar: The Way of Water Needs $800 Million To Break Even

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Credit: Avatar: The Way of Water

James Cameron’s press run for Avatar: The Way of Water has been exciting. First, the Oscar winner has taken shots at DC and Marvel films, then Cameron stated that Avatar 2 needed to make $2 Billion at the box office to be deemed a success; This is a difficult move for any studio to make. There’s only been five movies ever to make $2 Billion at the box office: Avatar ($2.9 billion), Avengers: Endgame ($2.7 billion), Titanic ($2.1 billion), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($2.07 billion), and Avengers: Infinity War ($2.05 billion).

Though the first film managed to cross that incredible feat and James Cameron is a proven box office draw, Avatar was ahead of its time during its initial release. Avatar is why the 3D phase began; however, it’s been 12 years since the first film, and the 3D craze is long gone. Making a film that MUST earn $2 billion to break even is simply stupid business-wise, as there’s no guarantee that Avatar: The Way of Water would even reach the level of success that the first film did.

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Credit: Avatar: The Way of Water

However, it appears that Mr. Cameron was exaggerating because The Hollywood Reporter states that the production of Avatar: The Way of Water cost between $350 million and $and0 million. So, Avatar 2 needs to make around $800 million to break even. While not as crazy as $2 billion, it’s still a pretty high feat overall. Still, Cameron tends to have more hits than misses, though, besides Titanic and Avatar, only Terminator 2: Judgment Day comes close to $800 million with $520. 9 million. However, hope is alive for the sequel as Water has broad fan interest.

The sequel is currently tracking a solid opening of at least $150 million – $170 million domestically when it opens in theaters on December 16. Of course, the numbers can always change, especially when the review embargo finally lifts. The previews before the official weekend opening will also be a telling sign. Now, considering the opening seems weaker compared to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187 million) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181 million).

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Credit: Avatar: Way of Water

However, the first film opened with $77 million domestically. Like Spider-Man: No Way Home or Top Gun: Maverick, it had incredible legs throughout its entire box office run. So, the opening isn’t the end all be all on whether the film will track more than $800 million. It’s all about solid word-of-mouth because as fantastic as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ opening was, it failed to get into the billion-dollar club. There’s still an air of mystery surrounding Black Panther: Wakanda Forever as it’s not doing terribly at the box office, but the demand isn’t as strong as the first feature with Chadwick Boseman. Whatever the case, the box office will determine the future of the Avatar franchise.

Avatar 3 has already been filmed, so unless The Way of Water turns out to be a massive bomb in the vein of John Carter, that film is being released no manner what. However, Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 still lingered as the studio gave the green light to four more sequels following the massive success of Avatar. On the flip side, those final two films will be canceled should Avatar 2 and 3 fail to bring back the big bucks for Disney,

“The market could be telling us we’re done in three months, or we might be semi-done, meaning: ‘Okay, let’s complete the story within movie three, and not go on endlessly, ‘if it’s just not profitable,” he told Total Film. “We’re in a different world now than when I wrote this stuff, even. It’s the one-two punch – the pandemic and streaming. Or, conversely, maybe we’ll remind people what going to the theater is all about. This film does that. The question is: how many people give a sh*t now? We’ll indeed find out on December 16.

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