In a largely unprecedented turn of events, the release date for the long-tortured James Bond installment No Time To Die has been pushed back from its April release date to a crowded slot on November 12th in the UK and November 25th Stateside. This has been due to the rise of the coronavirus, which originated in China; prompting Eon to wait it out until the disease has either died down or fully run its course.
There are also rumors that the villain in the movie may have been planning a biological weapon, a potentially bad taste contemporary plot-line considering the thousands of people who have already died due to this lethal disease, the large majority in China itself. The film now joins a crowded November slate which also includes Marvel’s The Eternals and Godzilla vs. Kong. More films could join also No Time To Die in November, as movie studios become more cautious about releasing films during a time of stay-at-home caution.
Coronavirus has been particularly bad for the Chinese film industry, where 70,000 cinemas have already been closed. Yet it’s not only the Middle Kingdom that has seen a downturn in cinema sales. Italy, where a large chunk of No Time To Die has been shot, has currently shut down cinemas and is implementing a strategy to keep patrons three seats apart. Yet neither Italy, nor any other non-UK region, would affect Eon’s bottom line as much as China, which has become crucial when it comes to Hollywood films returning a profit.
The World’s Second Biggest Market
As the formerly communist country quickly surges to be the biggest player in the world economy, its film world has followed. The Middle Kingdom has slowly been catching up with Hollywood when it comes to ticket sales, making $9 billion last year while Hollywood made just over a total of $11 billion. This is compared to just $2.5 billion in 2012. The country was forecast to surpass Hollywood this year, but now it looks like they will have to wait till 2021. Now China holds 22% of the world’s box office, meaning that it is a major player when it comes to the creation of certain films. This is disheartening when it comes to films containing LGBT references, as the censorious state rarely lets them through. Yet China also has a fascinating arthouse box office market, the dreamlike Long Day’s Journey into Night somehow turning over $41 million in box office receipts. Now producers from the country are just as interested in world arthouse cinema as the latest Hollywood production.
China Props Up Entire Franchises, Especially When They Feature Vin Diesel
China and Vin Diesel are fast friends. Fast 8 may have only made $226 million in the USA, but the film garnered a whopping $392 million in China. Likewise XXX: Return of Xander Cage grossed a measly $44 million in North America but made an incredible $164 million in the Middle Kingdom. This means that the American actor’s stardom is highly dependent upon China for its success. This is concerning for the success of Bloodshot, which is released worldwide this weekend. Made for only $42 million, the adaptation of the third-tier comic book character may not turn a profit at all without China’s help. He has recently been begging Sony to let him go to China to promote the movie, stating that: “Bloodshot at the end of the day is a soldier and a soldier doesn’t decide or pick when or where he’s deployed. We’re going to go in.” Sadly, the star, hoping to start a Valiant Cinematic Universe, is chasing a lost cause. Nonetheless, it does show that:
Hollywood Makes Films With China in Mind
Hollywood makes sure to cater to Chinese markets, whether that’s by including Asian actors, or filming parts of its globe-trotting franchises in a recognizable Chinese location. This can be seen in films as diverse as the Fast and Furious franchise, Rogue One and The Meg. This is a long cry from 20 years ago. The original Mulan was a flop in China in 1999, making only $373,000 in the box office in its first three days while the film sped to a huge $22.8 million three day cume in the USA. The live action release was supposed to be completely different.
Mulan was currently scheduled for release on March 27th, on par with its American friends, but now this has been pushed back indefinitely, scuppering the film’s chances to break over $1 billion. It’s likely that once it is released in China, it will have already been heavily pirated. This is a shame for Disney considering the effort they have put into the movie, making conscious decisions to honour the source material and avoid the ethnic stereotypes that plagued the reception of the first film.
Ultimately, while Hollywood couldn’t have predicted (and shouldn’t cater to the potential of) a pandemic coming out of China, their strategy shows the pitfalls of catering to one market too much. Time will tell how much they will suffer once more films pull release dates from the Middle Kingdom. Additionally, with the disease currently spreading throughout the USA, and events like SXSW being cancelled, Hollywood may find much, much larger problems closer to home.
A Streaming Solution?
The big winners in this crisis are Netflix and Amazon, who can just dump films on their streaming services and rack up subscriptions from bored people in self-quarantine. Studios, including Disney with their Disney+ service, may be tempted to do the same themselves, but this offers a double-edged sword: after all, by making streaming new movies easily accessible to everyone, this could quickly become the new normal.
With the threat of streaming services already pushing out certain types of middle-budget films, putting everything on a streaming service could be the straw to break the proverbial camel’s back. The cinema is a sacred experience, a large part of that revenue also dependent on popcorn, posters, drinks and arcade games, making changing the value chain – even with the same price purchases – a dangerous proposition indeed. Additionally, with China blocking Netflix and Amazon anyway, how can major studios even start when it comes to launching streaming services? In short, they’re probably going to lose a whole lot of money.
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