This year’s contenders on the Lead Actor in a Drama Series category are consists of two previous winners and four previous nominees. One of them played Michael Bluth. One of them played Jess Mariano. One of them is an Oscar nominee. This is an exciting category and we can’t wait to find out this September 17 if last year’s winner, Sterling K. Brown, will reclaim the glory or someone will dethrone him. Here’s my analysis and predictions in this category.
Jason Bateman – Ozark
Jason Bateman plays the role of Marty Byrde. This is his first nomination for the show and he is also nominated this year for directing. He previously earned nods for his performance in Arrested Development. He submitted the episode “The Toll.” Will he win? Maybe. The show surprisingly received a decent amount of nominations this year. The voters might also be impressed by his dramatic chops, as opposed to his known comedic performances in the past. His performance was considered as one of the show’s best assets. The downside is that the show is not nominated in the Outstanding Drama Series category.
Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us
Sterling K. Brown plays the role of Randall Pearson. This is his second consecutive nomination for the show and the category’s defending champion. He also won before for his performance in The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story. He submitted the episode “Number Three.” Will he win again? Possibly. As I’ve said, he is the defending champion and repeat wins usually happen. His performance continues to get acclaim since he also won a Golden Globe, SAG Award, and Critic’s Choice Award earlier this year. His episode submission also centers mostly on his character. The downside is that he might vote-split with co-star Milo Ventimiglia, who is also nominated in this category.
Ed Harris – Westworld
Ed Harris plays the role of The Man in Black/William. This is his first nomination for the show. He previously earned nods for his performances in Empire Falls and Game Change. He submitted the episode “Vanishing Point.” Will he win? Maybe. He is a veteran actor. He hasn’t won an Emmy yet and the voters might honor him because of that. His episode submission centers mostly on this character in which he gets to showcase his acting skills. The show also performed well in the nominations. The downside is that he might vote-split with his co-star Jeffrey Wright, who is also nominated in this category.
Matthew Rhys – The Americans
Matthew Rhys played the role of Philip Jennings. This is his third consecutive nomination. He submitted the finale episode “START.” Will he win? Possibly. This is the last chance for the voters to honor him for this performance and they usually award last season performances in this category. They did it before to Bryan Cranston, Kyle Chandler, and Jon Hamm years ago. His episode submission features his best performance and one of the most-talked about scenes on television this year. The show is also nominated in the Outstanding Drama Series category. The downside is that he has to overcome the competition in this category.
Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us
Milo Ventimiglia plays the role of Jack Pearson. This is his second consecutive nomination. He submitted the episode “The Car.” Will he win? Possibly. His character’s story arc is the most talked about during the season, which is how Jack died. His presence is more prominent this season and the voters could certainly pay attention to that. His episode submission features his character’s best moments. The show is nominated in the Outstanding Drama Series category. The downside is that he might vote-split with co-star Sterling K. Brown, who is also nominated in this category.
Jeffrey Wright – Westworld
Jeffrey Wright plays the role of Bernard Lowe. This is his first nomination for the show in this category as he was nominated last year in the supporting side. He won before for his performance in Angels in America. He submitted the season two finale episode “The Passenger.” Will he win? Possibly. His performance in the recent season received acclaim from critics and audience. His episode submission features a lot of moments surrounding his character. The show also performed well in the nominations and an Outstanding Drama Series nominee. The downside is that he might vote-split with his co-star Ed Harris, who is also nominated in this category.
VERDICT: My prediction right now is Matthew Rhys of The Americans. Since there are two pairs of nominees who can vote-split, Rhys is in a great position to win and, given that it’s his final season, the voters might feel like they have to honor him.
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