Did you miss the continuation of Matt’s great Redemption Island Duel streak? Check out my recap here.
On Night 16, Zapatera returns from Tribal Council. Steve hopes the tribe can come together even though David and Sarita have some issues. David confesses that he doesn’t care if the tribe knows his true feelings. Sarita confides that, as she had suspected, David has flipped. Steve says that David has shown that he can be an antagonist, but he’s hoping David can put his ego and pride aside for the betterment of the team.
Day 17. Redemption Island. Stephanie tells Matt all about what she likes to eat, and receives the “mocking” edit with some funny music playing underneath her monologue. Matt just wants to Duel and stop listening to her. He’s in it for the long haul. Ometepe gets Tree Mail to choose two to travel to RI for the Duel. Phillip wants to go so Rob decides to go too. Rob says he is going because Phillip can’t be trusted around anyone else. Further, Phillip is the most unaware person he has ever met. For his part, Phillip doesn’t trust Rob anymore. He tells the camera that a Japanese horseman wrote a book called The Book of Five Rings, which states that one should make his enemy move first. Rob wants to control everyone, but he will not be able to control Phillip.
Rob and Phillip meet Ralph and David at the RI Arena. Jeff asks Matt about spending twelve nights on RI. Is he ready to get to it? He certainly is. Jeff notes that at this part of the game, mental fatigue is one of the biggest obstacles. This Duel will test exactly that as it is a memory game. In turns, Matt and Stephanie will flip over tiles and try to match pairs of symbols. The first to five matches wins. Stephanie wins a game of rock, paper, scissors, and chooses Matt to go first. As Matt moves into the game board, Jeff notes that Matt is hoping for a lucky match as he hasn’t seen any symbols yet. Matt turns over a skull and…a skull! Stephanie just laughs and calls Matt “Golden Boy.” Stephanie then goes out and gets a crocodile…and a crocodile! The score is 1-1. Matt then flips over a calendar and an eagle. Stephanie counters with war clubs and fire. Matt then picks fire, and finds the first fire symbol. He’s up 2-1. Stephanie chooses a warrior and a temple card. Matt then selects an eagle and the original eagle. 3-1 Matt. Stephanie then gets a temple and a temple. 3-2. Matt next picks a canoe (the first time it was revealed) and a canoe! 4-2, Matt. Stephanie chooses a warrior and the first warrior, making the score 4-3. Matt picks a calendar and believes he knows where the original calendar is. He flips over a tile and it’s…a head dress! Stephanie then picks the calendar, but chooses the war clubs. This makes Matt very excited. He flips over war clubs and…war clubs! Matt stays alive!
Jeff asks Stephanie why she is so emotional. She wanted to play so badly but now she’s out. She cries because letting go of her dream sucks, especially when she feels Sarita doesn’t deserve to be there. She then turns to Ralph and tells him to get rid of Sarita because David is good at puzzles. Stephanie next tells Rob that Zapatera will just try to oust him like Russell. He shouldn’t trust anyone on Zapatera. Jeff asks Phillip about Matt’s performance, who says Matt is a samurai warrior who lives by the Bushido code. Jeff send Matt back to RI. Rob confesses that he is concerned that Phillip is ready to make a move…and that move will be to vote Rob out.
Rob and Phillip return to Ometepe, but before they arrive at camp, Phillip asks if they’re going to withhold any information from the rest of the tribe. Rob says no because he doesn’t want people to think they’re not a cohesive unit; he doesn’t want to play that way. Rob confides that he hoped Phillip would ask that so he could use it against him with the rest of the tribe. And so he does. As soon as they get back to camp Rob tells Natalie and Ashley that Phillip wanted to withhold the information on the Duel. If he can keep a target on Phillip, that means he won’t be blindsided. He then tells the whole tribe about Zapatera’s threats against him so they will feel they’re safe come The Merge.
Over at Zapatera, Steve asks the returning tribemates if Stephanie was nasty. Ralph says yes, but David said no. When David walks away, Ralph tells the rest of the tribe that Matt can’t be counted on to join them, but more importantly, David would flip at The Merge. Ralph tells the camera that you have to look at lawyers carefully because they feel above everyone else (I am a lawyer, and I do not think I am above everyone else. Just most people. Not everyone.). Steve confides that David’s arrogance is getting tough to stomach. Julie concurs, saying he’s bugging her, too. Sarita wants to punch the smirk off David’s face. Ralph says it doesn’t take “smart” to win this game. David thinks it does, and that why he’ll likely be voted out.
The next morning at Ometepe, as the tribe njoys a breakfast of rice, the girls say Rob likes the crispy rice, so they should save it for him. Phillip wants one scoop of the crispy rice. When he is denied, Phillip says they are all entitled to what is made for meals. Further, he saw the rest of them take a scoop of the crispy rice. Everything is always, Rob, Rob, Rob, Rob, Rob. “How asinine is that?” Phillip asks the camera. He’s sick and tired of Rob getting deference on everything. The first opportunity he has to eliminate Rob, he will! Phillip is the senior member of tribe and is therefore entitled to the deference. Instead, he gets the red-headed stepchild treatment. He’s sick of giving 110%. Will he give that much effort at the…
…Immunity Challenge. For the Challenge, the tribes will negotiate a number of obstacles, collecting three bags of balls along the way. At the end of the course, the players will shoot six balls into a narrow basket. The first tribe to score all six balls will win Immunity and a Reward: a helicopter will take the winning tribe to a scenic location for an afternoon picnic including chocolate, crackers, cheese, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (the latter for Natalie who is only 18). The tribes are even in number so no one will sit out. “Survivors ready……go!”
The tribes first encounter a large hay bale, which they both get through in an even fashion. Zapatera lifts Sarita and Ometepe lifts Rob to get their respective bags off of a coil of wire. Rob gets his first, while Sarita quickly loses time. The next obstacle requires the players to crawl beneath a bunch of ropes before climbing their way through a series of tangled ropes. Ometepe opens a big lead, and is first to the second bag. Again Rob is lifted up for Ometepe, but David is lifted for Zapatera instead of Sarita. This was a wise choice as David releases his bag first. Zapatera rushes off to the next obstacle: a cargo net climb. Rob finally secures his bag and Ometepe climbs onto the nets. Sarita needs help through the nets, but Ometepe gains no advantage as Phillip gets confused on which way to go, forcing Rob to backtrack for him and literally push Phillip through the obstacle. Zapatera lifts David again for the third bag, but he has trouble, allowing Ometepe to catch up. David gets the final bag, letting Zapatera bash through a “brick” wall (Jeff revealed on his Twitter feed that the wall actually consisted of wooden bricks painted to look like real ones. Still hard to get through though). Rob finally grabs Ometepe’s final bag, crashes through the wall, and fords the mud to begin opening their bags and start shooting towards the goal. Sarita can’t get her bag open, but finally does, permitting Zapatera to start shooting.
Ometepe scores its first point, and then second, both by Grant. Zapatera scores one, but Grant answers with point three. Ometepe scores the next two, tying up the score. Zapatera then takes the lead by hitting numbers four and five. Grant replies by scoring number four, and then number five for Ometepe. Both tribes try to make their final baskets, but both go in and out. Grant makes one last attempt and score number six! Ometepe wins Immunity and Reward! Jeff informs Zapatera that they will be down to five players after tonight’s Tribal Council: things are going from bad to worse. He sends the losers back to their beach as a helicopter lands (The Bachelor style!) to take Ometepe to their Reward picnic. Phillip tells the camera that superior tribes like his, despite their internal acrimony, “find a way to win.”
Ometepe flies to their Reward which is situated atop an active volcano. Rob says he has been on a lot of rewards before, but has never landed on an active volcano. They are all amazed by what they are seeing. Grant says the whole thing is special because they get to do it together. The tribe breaks out the candy, crackers, and cheese, causing Phillip to feel included in the group for first time. He finds it hard to not be communal in thinking in situations like this. Rob, always playing the game, knows to look for a clue to the Hidden Immunity Idol. He sees a jar of pirouette cookies, and thinks that the clue will be wrapped up like the cookies. Rob, of course, is right and he quickly grabs it from the jar without anyone noticing. As Rob details his discovery to the camera, he confides that he doesn’t need the clue, so he tosses it into the volcano! “Bye-Bye!” he gleefully shouts as the scroll disappears into the yawning mouth of the volcano.
Back at Zapatera, Mike thought it was an awesome Challenge, but that the outcome sucked. He’s starving and Zapatera has so far been unable to win a food Reward. There are only six of them, and there will only be five after tonight. Sarita wants to know what everyone is thinking. Steve says David should go, to which Sarita asks if he is sure they want to lose their puzzle guy? Mike insists he can do the puzzles, and that David has shown nothing special. Sarita would tell them to kick her off if she thought David was better than she is, but she doesn’t believe that. She then tells Ralph that the other three (Steve, David and Julie) are voting for David. She doesn’t trust David, and neither does Ralph. Sarita also confesses to being afraid David could beat Matt on RI, and would then come back for revenge.
For his part, David confides that he could go home if the tribe repeats their rationale from the last Tribal Council and votes on trust instead of strength. Mike tells the camera that before the Challenge, they were going to vote for David, but Sarita struggled at the Challenge, and David came through for them. Steve tells Ralph they need to keep David around for Challenges. They all like Sarita better, but she has no intestinal fortitude. “Who do you want at The Merge?” Steve asks the camera. Somehow, they need to figure a way out of their tail spin at…
…Tribal Council. Jeff begins by asking Ralph what happened at the Challenge? Ralph responds that they were winning, but, when Ralph begins to make excuses, David jumps in and states “excuses are for losers.” “I guess I’m a loser then,” replies Ralph. Jeff gives the tribe’s Challenge win stats to Julie, noting their terrible record since throwing the Challenge to oust Russell. She still thinks they’re the stronger tribe, despite their losses. David says cohesion is really the tribe’s problem. Jeff asks Ralph if that rings true, but Ralph says he doesn’t understand what cohesion means. After Jeff explains it to him by asking if Ralph would rather have 100 strong workers that don’t get a long, or 100 workers that aren’t as strong but do get a long, Ralph answers he would rather have the stronger team. Steve disagrees: he’d rather have cohesion. Jeff asks David if he is worried he has a target on him after supporting Stephanie and Krista? Yes he is, but he had to keep his word to Stephanie. Jeff notes the incongruity of turning on his alliance to keep his word to someone else. Sarita says she was surprised by David’s vote at the last Tribal Council because she trusted the six of them would stick together. David insists he didn’t flip on his alliance — he was just doing what he thought best for the tribe. Jeff asks Sarita if she is gunning for David then. She can only muster an “Uhhhhh” before David jumps in with, “Of course she is!” David states that the whole tribe has their minds made up between he and Sarita so they should just get on with it.
Jeff agrees. It’s time to vote. Sarita votes for David and vice versa. He comments that he hopes she loves RI as much as he loved writing her name down. Jeff collects the votes. The first vote is for Sarita. The second for David. Vote Three, too, is for David, but Vote Four is for Sarita. The next vote is for Sarita, as well, with one vote to go. “The seventh person voted out of Survivor: Redemption Island…..Sarita!” When her name is called, she mutters that she wishes she brought her stuff with her. “Don’t get too confident,” David gleefully admonishes her. Sarita’s torch is snuffed and she marches off into the Blue Light of Death. Jeff dismisses Zapatera back to their camp noting that if there was any question if the tribe was one cohesive group, Tribal Council certainly answered it…no.
Next Time On…Survivor!
Matt cuts his foot, hurting his chances at the Duel. With all of the remaining players at the Arena, Jeff tells them that the winner of the Duel between Matt and Sarita is going back into the game. Further, “We are Merged!” Upon hearing the news, Rob confesses that he knows everyone is coming after him.
Two episodes ago, when the preview suggested Matt might actually lose the Duel to Krista, I figured it was a classic case of reality TV misdirect, implying something dramatic that never came to pass. I was right then, and I believe I’m right now. Matt is going to win the final Duel and rejoin the game. The foot injury seems to obvious, and really, could you see Sarita beating Matt in any Challenge Survivor could some up with? Me either. Plus, last episode, Andrea was shown doubting her allegiance to Matt. This never would have been shown if Matt wasn’t going to make it back into the game.
Besides this, The Merge has arrived. It’s an interesting point to do so, as they will be merged with twelve players left, the largest number in the show’s history. Typically, The Merge occurs with ten players remaining, and has been done at nine and eleven before, but I don’t think ever at twelve. Could they not come up with two more Duels? Were they afraid the show was flagging in interest? I’m not sure the reason, but I’m excited for it, as The Merge always kicks things up a notch. (Later added note: does this mean we will have a nine person Jury? We have had that before, right? Maybe a 12-person Merge isn’t so odd then, after all.)
That said, I just do not understand the show or network’s insistence on telling us that The Merge (or other major events: tribe mix-ups, family visits, etc.) is coming. I mean, I understand it: I’ve now spent 100 words or so writing about it. But wouldn’t you like to be surprised just once by the show? In the early seasons, we were all shocked when certain things occurred. Then we anticipated them along with the players, only to be surprised when they didn’t occur, like the fake-out Merge in Survivor: Thailand. For the past few seasons, however, we have known exactly when everything is going to happen. Going forward, I want to be surprised again. CBS and Survivor, if by some miracle you are reading this, let us be surprised — the “water cooler” talk after the fact will be much greater than any chatter about The Merge coming today. Sincerely, me.
Odds to Win
Alright, with Matt winning another Duel and likely to win the final one, Ometepe now with a numerical advantage, and The Merge coming before another Challenge, things are going to change quickly next week. I believe the future of this game really depends (for most. Sorry, Phillip.) on which side Matt chooses to play. So, let’s see how the Odds are effected:
Grant: 5-1. Grant is a beast. Plain and simple. He has single-handedly won the last two Challenges for Ometepe, and shows no signs of slowing down. He is in the driver seat as his tribe has the numerical advantage going into The Merge. Further, he has a human shield in Rob on one side of him, and the annoying girls on the other side, taking heat off of him. Plus, Matt’s re-entry into the game puts another “physical” player ahead of Grant in the voting order because who in their right mind is going to allow a guy who survived seven straight Duels get to the Final Three? Grant is in a real good place.
Mike: 7-1. Oddly, I think Mike has the most to gain and lose by Matt’s decision. If Matt chooses Zapatera, and can pull Andrea along with him, even an almost guaranteed defection by David will leave the tribes even. Mike might be a target of Ometepe, but I think Rob will train his sights on Ralph first, as Ralph has an HII. If so, that might give Mike some space to maneuver against Rob before Rob can get him. It will be tight, but Mike is smart enough to do it.
Andrea: 10-1. I said it last week: if Ometepe could win one more Challenge, Andrea would rocket up the Odds board. They did, and she does. Andrea couldn’t be in a better position (despite not saying one word during this week’s episode): Ometepe has numbers leading into The Merge, Rob is worried about Phillip flipping, and Matt is most definitely coming back into the game. She does have a big decision to make, likely along with Matt: stick it out with Rob and Ometepe, or head over to Zapatera. Either way, she will likely have the opportunity to watch a number of players knock themselves off before even thinking about ousting her. My preseason favorite is back!
Julie: 12-1. Julie is starting to get on my nerves. I thought she was playing a smart game, but more and more she looks quite passive, letting others make decisions for her. She was right in not wanting to throw that Challenge, but she did nothing about it. Now her tribe is behind the eight ball. At least, for her sake, she isn’t a primary target, so she will have time to make some sort of move. I just hope she does it soon.
Steve: 13-1. Does Steve just seem uninterested in the game? Has he just worn down and not had a second wind? Is all the losing getting to the former NFL player? Whatever it is, Steve better shake it off soon or else he will be in for a world of hurt.
Rob: 14-1. Rob’s game is about to get thrown for a loop. Yes, Ometepe has the numerical advantage, but that may be wiped out if Matt (and Andrea) side with Zapatera. He knows he is Public Enemy Number One, but he has done an incredible job securing the loyalty of his troops. The only unknown is Phillip. Can Rob keep him in line and prevent a defection? Regardless, I don’t see Rob being dumb enough to not play hit HII, so he should be around at least one more week.
Natalie: 25-1. Natalie is going to make it to the Final Three, isn’t she? I have to face up to this fact. *sigh* Maybe Zapatera will try to make Rob think they are voting for him so he will play his HII, but then really vote for Natalie or Ashley to weaken Rob. That would be good. Then again, Zapatera is more likely to target Grant than one of the girls. Damn!
Ashley: 40-1. Fortunately, there was very little, if any, Ashley this week. This makes me happy. I know I should be rooting for her to get to the end to justify my preseason Odds to Win, but I just can’t root for this girl. I can’t do it. I’d rather Natalie win, which is saying something.
Ralph: 49-1. I have to move Ralph down because he continues to embarrass himself in front of Ometepe and the world. Rob knows Ralph has an HII, so I have to imagine Ralph with be Ometepe’s first target. I said above that Rob wasn’t dumb enough to not play his HII. Is Ralph? (I don’t say that based on any “dumb hick” stereotype. I don’t think Ralph is “Survivor smart” enough to know he is being targeted because he has the HII. That’s all.)
Matt: 50-1. He did it again, and if I were a betting man, I would lay a whole lot on Matt beating Sarita next week (yes, yes, I was wrong that Stephanie was going to beat Matt this week, but I even predicted my prediction would be wrong, so there!). It will be interesting to see his machinations as to whom he will align himself, and whether he can or wants to bring Andrea along. It will also be really important to see if he is safe from the first Tribal Council vote. Matt could go very far now that he’s (almost) back in the game. It will take, however, a Fabio-like run of Individual Immunity wins to get to the end. As I mentioned above, would any remaining player actually allow Matt to get to the end after surviving the length of RI? I know I wouldn’t, so I have to keep Matt low on the Board.
Phillip: 200-1. Somehow, Phillip has managed to stay alive until The Merge. I’m a bit shocked, but he did it. Now, will he turn on Rob and go over to Zapatera? Will he quickly annoy them too? With either side, Phillip will still be at the bottom of the totem pole, so I jsut don’t see how he wins the game, unless he is brought to the Final Three as a suspected vote black hole, yet has an incredible Final Tribal Council monologue that reveals he was playing everyone all along.
David: 500-1. I successfully predicted Sarita being ousted before David, and his alliance being suspicious of him. David has been revealed as completely untrustworthy. He will likely try to flip to Rob’s alliance, but this may be one player everyone decides it is in their best interests to vote out. I may be foolish for giving him such long odds, but I just can’t stand players like this. It’s one thing for Rob Cesternino to try to manipulate his way to the top, but he did relatively ego-free. David is an egomaniac who can’t get out of his own way, so I just don’t see how he lasts too much longer.
Sarita: Eleventy-billion-1. Sarita, you lasted longer than I expected. I’m sorry, but there is no way you beat Matt next week. Even if you do, by some miracle, rejoin the game, you are getting nowhere near the Final Three. Ta-ta.
There you have it folks. That was episode seven of Survivor: Redemption Island. What did you think? Do you think Matt will triumph in the final Duel? Which alliance will he side with when he returns? Will Andrea go with him? Has David sealed his own fate? Do you like knowing The Merge is coming in the next episode, or would you rather be surprised? Please leave your questions, comments and theories below. I’ll be back next week to recap what will certainly be a huge episode. Until then, I’m off to quote The Sandlot. You’re killing me Smalls!
Follow: twitter.com/tvovermind
Follow: twitter.com/MikeNJD
Email: michael@tvovermind.com
Follow Us
