The box office might just need an imaginary friend right now. The first half of 2024 has seen no debut film crossing the coveted $100 million mark in its domestic launch—a feat accomplished effortlessly by three films by Memorial Day last year. Specifically, The Super Mario Bros. Movie soared to $146.3 million in April of 2023, raking in $1.36 billion worldwide eventually.
This year’s top opener so far is March’s Dune: Part Two, starting with $82.5 million, trailed by Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire with $80 million.
With summer in full swing and a month already gone, the absence of a $100 million opener is worrisome. There’s no more pivotal time for moviegoers—especially kids, teens, and college students collectively free from academic commitments—to frequent theaters.
The Fall Guy‘s Tepid Reception
Universal’s The Fall Guy barely registered on the box office radar. Despite featuring stars like Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt—both hot off the Barbenheimer phenomenon>—the action-comedy managed a modest $27.7 million opening against its hefty $130 million budget. Hollywood is sucking wind right now. The strike wreaked havoc,
noted Wall Street analyst Eric Handler.
The film underwhelmed so starkly that Universal transitioned it to PVOD for $19.99 merely three weekends post-release, underscoring its theatrical shortcomings.
Low Opening for IF
John Krasinski’s IF, a family-friendly live-action/CGI hybrid starring Ryan Reynolds, debuted at a lukewarm $33.7 million—falling short of estimates.
This marks a concerning trend as summer typically kicks off with strong Marvel releases—like last year’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3
, which grossed over $118 million on its opening weekend.
A Concerning Lack of Major Releases
A seismic shift in release schedules due to labor strikes and pandemic delays exacerbated the issue—Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World, originally slated for early May, now finds itself rescheduled alongside the next installments in the Mission: Impossible and Spider-Verse series.
Cautious Optimism or Misplaced Hope?
The industry nervously watches whether Pixar’s Inside Out 2, Universal’s Despicable Me 4, or Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine will break the $100 million curse this summer.
This year has already observed a steep drop in May’s domestic box-office revenue by nearly 20% compared to last year and about 50% from 2019 levels.
Godzilla x Kong: Can MonsterVerse Save Summer?
Zachary Wingard returns to direct ‘Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire’
, promising even more kaiju showdowns amidst familiar faces from previous entries in the MonsterVerse franchise—the returning consistency bodes well but can it drive footfall?
Anya Taylor-Joy’s Challenge as Furiosa
Anya Taylor-Joy faces an uphill battle with George Miller’s anticipated yet risky prequel, Mad Max: Furiosa, despite her captivating portrayal of Furiosa—a character made legendary by Charlize Theron.
Taylor-Joy had to quickly master high-octane driving stunts despite having no prior experience behind the wheel—a testament to her dedication but not necessarily enough to guarantee box office success.
The Pressure on Hollywood’s Remaining Giants
Certain industry analysts suggest revising current metrics for success away from the high-pressure benchmarks of yesteryears.
In today’s modern theatrical marketplace, emphasis should shift from short-term gains to long-term playability, making this a game of yards instead of inches,
. With stark revenue declines paralleling last year’s crises, it’s clear that imagination alone might not save this summer.
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