The box office prospects for one of the summer’s biggest swings have just appeared, and they’re not looking too promising.
Kevin Costner‘s big-budget Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter One has hit tracking, with major services predicting a domestic opening around $12 million. That’s not encouraging news for Costner and the backers of this independently financed Western, considering its $100 million production cost before marketing. Even more urgent, Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 2 is slated to follow quickly on August 6.
A Quest for Redemption
Warner Bros. is only handling the film domestically and has three weeks remaining to mount a major marketing push. Kevin Costner banking on rallying his Yellowstone fanbase could be crucial. Some insiders argue that current tracking isn’t fully capturing Costner’s large middle-America audience.
A Longshot Gamble
The Horizon film represents one of this year’s significant gambles and is a passion project for Kevin Costner. The actor invested $38 million of his own money, aiming to bring his vision of the West to life. Much of the remaining budget was secured through foreign sales, sold off territory by territory.
A Race Against Time
Horizon: Chapter 2 arrives less than two months after the first chapter, with Costner planning two more films. He has already begun filming Chapter 3 but still needs more funds to complete his grand vision.
I don’t want to let this pile of things I have — whether it’s money, whether it’s possessions — be so important to me that I can’t think about what I want to do
, Costner shared with The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg at Cannes. He continued, I’m going to keep enough things that my family’s going to be good… I’d like to have money, I’d like to have nice things, but I thought to myself, ‘That’s going to control me if I let it.’
A Competitive Box Office Landscape
Meanwhile, Paramount’s prequel A Quiet Place: Day One, also tracked recently, is expected to easily outshine Horizon with a projected $40 million opening. The contrast between these projections adds further pressure on Costner’s ambitious project, especially given recent discrepancies in tracking accuracy.
An Uphill Battle Ahead
The tension surrounding Horizon increases as its stiff competition takes shape. Held in high regard as a potential sleeper hit amid box office turbulence, it’s certainly a daring bet for Kevin Costner and all involved.
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